India’s strategy and response after the terrorist strike in Pahalgam
The terrorist attack from across the border supported by some radicalised locals has once again plunged our nation into grief, provoking nationwide anger. This time it is the murder of 26 Hindu tourists in Pahalgam. As usual, Pakistani authorities deny involvement even as groups based on its soil "take credit" for the attacks. However, the Indian intelligence agencies have established time and again that the Islamist groups created, armed, trained, and guided from Pakistan, often directed by the ISI, kill innocents in India in the name of Jihad. Usually, such dastardly terrorist strikes are carried out by the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), along with the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). There are some terrorist outfits like the People's Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) and The Resistance Front (TRF), with supporters like the "Indian Mujahideen".
India's strategy to respond effectively to such cross-border terrorism has gradually evolved. After Pathankot (2016), India conducted a series of counter-terror operations in Jammu and Kashmir and increased security measures at key installations. In continuation, after Uri (Sept 2016), India carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC), targeting militant launchpads in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK). However, after Pulwama (Feb 2019), India conducted an airstrike, targeting a JeM training camp in Balakot, Pakistan. This time (May 2025), military retribution will follow by identifying, tracking and punishing every terrorist and their backers.
Right of Hot Pursuit: The terrorists have gone into hiding after the Pahalgam attack. Therefore, India will eventually conduct surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) targeting terrorist launch pads in Pakistan. Our Air Force will carry out missile attacks on the terrorists' handlers and their bases targeting terrorist training camps and infrastructure within Pakistan. In addition, covert operations will be intensified. Key terrorists leaders and infrastructure within Pakistan will be eliminated by Indian proxy aided by technical intelligence provided by Indian UAVs and satellites.
The service chiefs have been told to choose the targets, method and the timing of their choice.
Readiness for war: Pakistan has fuel and ammunition stock for only one week. A naval blockade would stop the oil from reaching Pakistan and reduce its fighting capability. Therefore, the Indian fleet sailed out to carry out a Naval blockade if needed.
Indian S-400s and AWACS forced Pakistan to place their F16 in Pasni (Gwadar) on their Western front rather than on the border with India. India’s beyond-visual range missiles like Meteor fitted on Rafales, Astra 1 and Astra 2 on SU 30 will ensure taking out Pakistani fighter aircraft without a dogfight. At the same time, Brahmos fitted on SU 30s, Indian ships and Army regiments have beyond-visual range offensive capabilities against surface targets. Agni and Prithvi missiles, Multi-barrel Pinaka and Smirch rocket launchers with precision-guided ammunition. The Pakistan missiles Ghazni, Ghouri and Shaheen will be taken out by the S-400 system before they enter Indian air space.
India will also utilise cyber warfare tactics to disrupt militant communications and operations. Though the previous operations involved deploying only the Army and IAF, the Navy's assets will now be mobilised and deployed in the northern reaches of the Arabian Sea (in international waters), to pressure Pakistani merchant shipping, leading to higher insurance premiums for their trade.
No rational leader will dare use nuclear weapons against a nuclear state like India and get annihilated from the map of the world. Therefore, India will go ahead with its military action at the time of its choosing.
Diplomatic action: World leaders including the President of the US have already denounced the Pahalgam terror attack perpetrated from Pakistan soil giving India the freedom to act. China despite being very close to Russia has not got involved in the Russia-Ukraine war. Therefore, it will not get involved. Turkey is too far for direct involvement. So, Pakistan is isolated geopolitically.
In addition, India has now added several diplomatic actions, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, scaling down diplomatic missions by expelling more Pakistani diplomats, ending visa services for Pakistani nationals, closing the Attari-Wagah border and ordering Pakistani citizens, including those here for medical treatment, to leave the country.
Fragmented Pakistan: The Kashmir Valley has responded by staging protests against the Pahalgam terrorist attack. The rest of the Indians are with the Govt including the Opposition. Therefore, the Indian diaspora will ensure stability within India when action is taken against Pakistan. On the other hand, Baluchistan is on the verge of declaring independence from Pakistan. Now is the time to support the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) to the hilt openly and decisively with moral and weapon support.
Pakistan is moving its military from the Afghan and Baluch border to its border with India fearing an Indian attack. Taliban will see an opportunity to move the Durand Line and the Tahrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) will keep the Pakistan Army engaged on its Western front.
Inflict Economic Pain: Pakistan is facing economic crises, driven by mounting external liabilities, political instability, and natural disasters. A worsening balance of payment crisis, exacerbated by global inflationary pressures and supply-chain disruptions post-COVID-19, has left Pakistan on the verge of default. The Pak government had little choice but to seek an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout in 2024. In September 2024, the IMF approved a US$7-billion loan for Pakistan. India has asked the IMF and the World Bank to review loans to Pakistan. In addition, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the major funders of Pakistan. Both these countries will be asked to stop supporting a regime that supports terrorism.
Both China and the US have more than 110 billion dollars worth of trade with India. India is bound to leverage its market to stop military and monetary aid from China and the US to Pakistan.
In addition, stoppage of all trade including pharmaceutical products will hurt Pakistan because China or any other country can only replace these products at two to three times the Indian price.
The economic crisis will speed up the fragmentation of Pakistan (refer to the map of likely fragmented Pakistan).
Social Impact: The digital crackdown needs to be intensified further by blocking the Instagram and YouTube accounts of all Pakistani cricketers and Influential Pakistani personalities in India. This would mean no sports and cultural exchanges till Pakistan stops cross-border terrorism.
The military superiority of India and the call for retribution by the masses in India will act as deterrence. In addition, the Pakistan diaspora can sense that Indus water will eventually be controlled by India causing panic and distancing with terror sympathisers. Even if 20% of water is diverted from the Indus and the release of water data is stopped, it will cause fear and insecurity in the minds of farmers in Pakistan. The economic woes and uncertainty of a better future will hasten the fragmentation of Pakistan.
Conclusion: India is firm in its resolve to inflict pain and damage on the terrorists and those who support them.