Question: Transgression by the Chinese soldiers on LAC have risen. What is the reason and solution? How is it different from Doklam standoff?
Answer: Sir, it is true that the Chinese soldiers have moved into Indian territory at times across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and have increased number of soldiers (Galwan river valley) on their side in the month of May. In addition, this time, they are staying put, dug down and in tents and not just as a short-term patrol; lastly, these incursions are happening in multiple locations and they have become more assertive and aggressive in their behaviour. There are two main reasons for such transgressions. The first is that India resurfaced advanced landing ground (it enables us to land medium-lift transport aircraft like AN-32 and C-130J Hercules in addition to helicopters) at Vijayanagar on the Sino-Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh in 2019. The airfield is important not only for the local administration in extending their reach to the residents of this remote area but also crucial from a strategic point of view. The second reason was India’s efforts to bolster border area infrastructure in Ladakh after the completion of the DSDBO road (Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi road towards the Galwan Nalah). Though infrastructure development is happening on both sides, India has just caught up in the last 7-8 years in Ladakh with improved access to the LAC. With the transgressions, China probably desires to gain leverage vis-a-vis India regarding issues in bilateral relations and matters like Covid-19 and WHO.
Solution:
- As past incidents (Doklam) show, India will continue to match military moves.
- Mutually established protocols at the local level are used to diffuse the situation and disengage. China and India stay in close communication and coordination concerning our border affairs within existing communication channels. The best way to guarantee “peace and tranquillity” on the Sino-Indian border is to focus on military-to-military communication, which would allow the two sides to immediately clarify any relevant issues at a more senior directive level.
- Quiet diplomacy has space to produce results in these kinds of situations. It gives more room to both countries to push at one place and step back at other creating better chances of success in negotiations.
- Social media is already exploding with anti-Chinese sentiments & appeals to discard Chinese goods and Apps. This could really hurt China. Hence, China will be more willing to appease India.
China has been relatively silent during the current border stand-off because the situation today along the LAC differs from Doklam. In 2017, India crossed an international boundary to challenge Chinese troops in an area disputed by China and Bhutan but not by India. From Beijing’s standpoint, the Indian action was a clear violation of China’s sovereignty, even if the area was also claimed by Bhutan (Bhutan is a sovereign country. It is a protected state, but not a protectorate, of India). Hence, China’s diplomacy was vocal and public, designed to communicate its resolve to defend what it views as its territory in the Doklam. When Indian troops returned across the border to Indian territory, the situation eased and was eventually resolved.
Note:
- The basic framework for dealing with such issues has been laid out in a 1993 “agreement on peace and tranquillity.” According to the "Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquillity along the LAC," combat aircraft (to include fighter, bomber, reconnaissance, military trainer, armed helicopter and other armed aircraft) shall not fly within 10 km of the LAC.