Answer by Commander Rathore: The US and the Taliban signed an agreement on 29 February 2020 to facilitate the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. The deal has stalled due to differences between the Taliban and the Afghan government on prisoner releases and intra-Afghan dialogue (on power sharing). Now what political model would be adopted by the Afghan government & the Taliban can only be answered hypothetically in the present time. They could agree on different power sharing model, or the Taliban could acquire full control over the centre and periphery.
If the US withdraws without succeeding to achieve a rapprochement between the Afghan government and the Taliban, then a civil war in Afghanistan is inevitable because there are more than one armed group in Afghanistan vying for control and power. The repercussions of which can even endanger the integrity of Afghanistan and naturally would pose more serious security issues for Pakistan. In such a situation, the desperate influx of another spate of refugees cannot be ruled out in Pakistan and some may find their way in the Kashmir valley. In addition, if all the militia in Afghan Taliban do not stick together, it can further splinter Afghan Taliban and some of their diehard fighters and criminal elements within their ranks may join Daesh and try to wreck peace in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Pakistan’s strategic objectives in Afghanistan continue to be countering Indian influence and mitigating spill over of instability into its territory. Another dimension is that if Afghan Taliban also joins in the government formation then it would be very helpful to Pakistan as both are against ISIS and India. Hence, it is in India’s interest to have a stable Afghanistan with a govt. which is supportive of India. India has invested in building Afghanistan infrastructure in hope of business opportunities and get a gateway to central Asia through Afghanistan (via Chabahar port in Iran to landlocked Afghanistan).
Note:
- India is invested in the success of the current regime in Afghanistan. It has already invested around US$3 billion in building Afghanistan parliament, roads, dams & schools, making India one of the country’s biggest donors.
- India has formally taken over operations at Iran's strategic Chabahar Port being built largely by India. India wants to improve transport connectivity and economic collaboration with countries in Central Asia and this port allows India to bypass Pakistan. This move will have significant geopolitical ramifications in the region. The trade with Afghanistan has already started through this port in Feb 2019.
- The Taliban emerged in 1994 around local religious figures (mullahs) in the southern Afghan province of Kandahar. The intention of this group was to restore a minimum of peace and security for ordinary people against the anarchic violence which plagued the country since the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the collapse of the Afghan communist regime in 1992. The initial militia of the Taliban were young Afghans, primarily Pashtuns, who had received their religious education in madrassas. The goal of Taliban is to restore their Islamic Emirate and implement Sharia law while expelling all foreign military forces from Afghanistan.
- Following the events of 9/11 and the US-led attacks on the Taliban regime in October 2001, many Taliban fighters fled across the border into the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan where they later regrouped. Since 2004, they have staged an impressive comeback as an insurgency and now retain a commanding presence in large parts of the Afghan countryside.
- Daesh (emerged in 2014) poses a serious threat to the Taliban not only militarily and as an emerging rival for state sovereignty but as a competitor in defining visions and methods for political change and organization as well as in defining the everyday practices and beliefs of Afghan Sunni Muslims. Daesh has established itself in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar and made ephemeral appearances in western, southern, and northern Afghanistan as well. Most of Daesh militia are Salafi jihadists (also wish to implement Sharia law) and religious students which had previously operated under the Taliban banner.
- The real difference between Sunni and Salafi is that Sunnis believe Prophet Muhammad is Nur or enlightened soul to guide the Muslims whereas the Salafis’ believe he is a normal human being like everyone else. Practically, Salafis’ maintain that Muslims ought to rely on the Quran and Sunnah alone, ignoring the rest of Islamic hermeneutic teachings.