Russia-Ukraine War: Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions were fighting Ukraine to pressure Ukraine to leave pro-EU alignment. It is an area collectively known as the Donbas. It broke away from Ukrainian government control in 2014 and proclaimed its independent “people’s republics”. The move led to a bloody conflict between Ukraine and Russia-backed forces, which partly ended with the signing of the Minsk agreement in 2015. This agreement included a ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line, release of prisoners of war, constitutional reform in Ukraine granting self-government to some regions of Donbas and restoring control of the state border to the Ukrainian government.
Ukraine and the separatists failed to follow the Minsk agreement. Subsequently, on 22 Feb 2022, Russia recognised the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic,” by signing a decree.
Russia had to stop Ukraine before it formally joined NATO. Hence, by February 2022, as many as 1,90,000 Russian troops were encircling Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022. Russian forces attacked major cities across Ukraine, including Berdyansk, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Sumy, and the capital Kyiv. Russia also amassed a naval build-up in the black sea. However, Russia failed to seize Kyiv and install a pro-Moscow government or take a promise from Ukraine against joining NATO. Thus, after two years of war, about 18% of Ukrainian territory is in Russian control, and the fighting could drag on and become a war of attrition.
Ukraine received billions of dollars in military aid from the West to fight the Russian invasion. Zelensky responded to the Russian invasion by declaring martial law and general mobilisation of Ukraine’s military-age population. Ukrainian Forces have been able to defend themselves because Ukraine’s military underwent extensive reforms in the years since Russia annexed Crimea (2014), and defence spending increased dramatically during that time. In addition, their personnel had earned valuable combat experience while serving in the Donbas against Russian proxies since 2014.
This war has been responsible for the death of more than two lakh soldiers and thousands of civilians in Ukraine. More than 7.8 million Ukrainians have sought refuge outside of Ukraine, and an estimated 3.7 million have been internally displaced within Ukraine. The costs of rebuilding Ukraine could be from $350 billion to $750 billion. Finding those funds will be difficult as the war has significantly weakened the Ukrainian economy.
Projecting the outcome of the war is challenging. The war has badly damaged Russia’s military, tarnished its reputation, disrupted the economy, and profoundly altered the geopolitical picture in the region.
As for NATO, only ten alliance members have expressed support for a membership path for Ukraine. However, Other allies are prepared to provide Ukraine with financial and military assistance but are unwilling to go to war with Russia to defend Ukraine.
The U.N. General Assembly approved a resolution for rejecting — and demanding reversal —Moscow’s illegal annexation of Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia is demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states. In addition, Russia demands a halt to NATO expansion and the containment of NATO forces in countries that had been members before 1997.
Solution: The US-led Western countries must open political and military communication channels with Russia. The US must offer concessions on sanctions on Russia, and Russia may be promised that case of war crimes will not be pursued against it to bring Russia to the negotiation table.
Ukraine should promise not to join NATO. This pledge would allow Russia to abandon the conflict by declaring victory. In return, Ukraine’s candidacy for the European Union (and not NATO membership) would be honoured. Russia should promise to respect Ukrainian sovereignty and to desist from destabilising its democracy. The territorial question (republics of Donetsk and Lugansk) is more complex but not insoluble. If Ukraine recognised that Crimea was Russian, which it did until 1954, then Putin would become more accommodating concerning the other occupied provinces; they could, for example, become neutral zones of common interest, with a regime of free exchange between Russia and Ukraine.
The West has frozen over $300 billion in Russian Central Bank reserves. Some of these must be utilised for Ukraine’s reconstruction.
For controlling wars in future, a limit needs to be set on deployments of conventional forces across all of Europe, including a tactical nuclear weapons arms control arrangement.
Conclusion: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is primarily a proxy war between the USA and Russia, which has also become a civil war within Ukraine. Prolonging this armed conflict is likely to have devastating consequences for the people of Ukraine. Therefore, a political-diplomatic solution is required to resolve the Ukraine conflict.